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If you’re a founder of a venture-funded company, your first chance of success is about 19 percent. If you succeeded with that first company, your chances of success with your second company will be more than 30 percent. If you failed the first time and try again, your odds of success are [still] roughly 19 percent. So your instinct, generally as an investor is that, ‘Wow, if you [the founder] have a history of success, then I should bet on you.’ That’s a good instinct. But some instincts aren’t born out by the data. So it’s a mix, and sometimes we get it right and sometimes we get it wrong and it’s not all intuition-driven. It’s not all computer-driven either.
Bill Maris Talks Uber, Zenefits, And Increasing GV’s Yearly Fund To $500 Million | TechCrunch
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