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16:33

The most recent OTC memo

So there you have some of the key lessons from sports:

· For most participants, success is likely to lie more dependably in discipline, consistency and minimization of error, rather than in bold strokes – high batting average and an absence of strikeouts, not the occasional, sensational home run.
· But in order to be superior, a player has to do something different from others and has to have an appropriate level of confidence that he can succeed at it. Without conviction he won’t be able to act boldly and survive bouts of uncertainty and the inevitable slump.
· Because of the significant role played by randomness, a small sample of results is far from sure to be indicative of talent or decision-making ability.
· The goal for bettors is to see value in assets that others haven’t yet recognized and that isn’t reflected in prices.
· At first glance it seems effort and “common sense” will lead to success, but these often prove to be unavailing.
· In particular, it turns out that most people can’t see future outcomes much better than anyone else, but few are aware of this limitation.
· Before a would-be participant enters any game, he should assess his chances of winning and whether they justify the price to play.

These lessons can serve investors very well.

Don't be the product, buy the product!

Schweinderl